Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
000
WTNT42 KNHC 050242
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
Philippe has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The storm still resembles an elongated trough in satellite images
with a north-south oriented area of deep convection extending a
couple of hundred north and several hundred miles south of the
center. Areas of heavy rain continue to linger near Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands. Since the system appears to be steady in
strength, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the
earlier aicraft data. This wind speed estimate is also in line with
the latest satellite intensity estimates.
The storm is moving northward at 11 kt in the flow between a ridge
over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low off the
Florida coast. This northward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next few days, taking the center
of the system across Bermuda in 36-48 hours. Philippe will likely
turn northwestward into Maine and Atlantic Canada this weekend when
another trough cuts off over the northeastern U.S. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
Nearly all of the models show slow strengthening during the next 2
or 3 days, which seems to be due to baroclinic influences from the
trough/low currently east of Florida. The mid- to upper-level
trough/low will likely merge with Philippe in 48-60 hours, which
should cause the system to develop frontal features and become
extratropical after it passes Bermuda. The post-tropical cyclone
is expected to weaken once it moves inland over Maine and Atlantic
Canada. The NHC intensity forecast also lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Heavy
rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday.
2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 23.8N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 25.4N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 28.4N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 31.9N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 35.3N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 39.0N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 43.3N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 51.6N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
More...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 050242
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
Philippe has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The storm still resembles an elongated trough in satellite images
with a north-south oriented area of deep convection extending a
couple of hundred north and several hundred miles south of the
center. Areas of heavy rain continue to linger near Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands. Since the system appears to be steady in
strength, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the
earlier aicraft data. This wind speed estimate is also in line with
the latest satellite intensity estimates.
The storm is moving northward at 11 kt in the flow between a ridge
over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low off the
Florida coast. This northward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected during the next few days, taking the center
of the system across Bermuda in 36-48 hours. Philippe will likely
turn northwestward into Maine and Atlantic Canada this weekend when
another trough cuts off over the northeastern U.S. The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the
guidance envelope.
Nearly all of the models show slow strengthening during the next 2
or 3 days, which seems to be due to baroclinic influences from the
trough/low currently east of Florida. The mid- to upper-level
trough/low will likely merge with Philippe in 48-60 hours, which
should cause the system to develop frontal features and become
extratropical after it passes Bermuda. The post-tropical cyclone
is expected to weaken once it moves inland over Maine and Atlantic
Canada. The NHC intensity forecast also lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Heavy
rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday.
2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 23.8N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 25.4N 66.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 28.4N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 31.9N 65.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 35.3N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 39.0N 66.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 43.3N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 51.6N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
More...