Tropical Depression Twenty-two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

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Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020


000
FONT12 KNHC 180243
PWSAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT

BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)

GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 9(24) 3(27) 1(28)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)

BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)

MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)

ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)

NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)

GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 17(24) 16(40) 3(43) 3(46)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)

FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)

CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 3(21)

JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)

KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)

PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)

GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 4(24) 5(29)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)

HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11)

AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)

SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)

FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 3(17)

GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 23(38) 6(44) 5(49)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 3(14)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)

HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12)

MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 7(30) 5(35)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)

PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 17(23) 9(32) 5(37)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)

ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 6(24)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 5(22)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 31(44) 9(53) 5(58)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) 4(24)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)

MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 5(21)
MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)

HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 5(25)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 6(28)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)

GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 26(41) 8(49) 5(54)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) 4(21)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)

LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12)
LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)

TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)

$$
FORECASTER BERG

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