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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Central East Pacific (EP98):
Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is becoming better defined. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while it moves westward or northwestward
at about 10 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
2. Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far western portion of the
basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
3. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a few days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Berg
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