Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 23

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Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020


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WTNT45 KNHC 180237
TCDAT5

Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 17 2020

After a significant strengthening episode this afternoon, Teddy is
maintaining Category Four intensity. Observations from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission into the
hurricane this evening indicate that the maximum winds remain near
120 kt. Since Teddy should remain in a low-shear environment for
the next day or so, additional strengthening could occur on Friday.
An upper-level cyclone seen in water vapor images to the southeast
of Bermuda and the cool wake of previous Hurricane Paulette could
impede strengthening in a couple of days. However, Teddy is likely
to remain a dangerous major hurricane for the next 72 hours,
including the time it passes closest to Bermuda. Some fluctuations
in strength due to eyewall replacements are possible during that
period.

The hurricane has continued to move northwestward, or around 315/10
kt. Teddy should move along the southwestern periphery of a
mid-level high during the next 2-3 days, and then turn northward
around days 3-4 while moving through a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. Around the end of the forecast period, Teddy will probably
interact with a deep mid-tropospheric cyclone in the vicinity of
Nova Scotia. This interaction will probably cause Teddy to bend
somewhat toward the left around day 5, but there is significant
uncertainty in the details of the track at that forecast time
range. It is also possible that the system will be losing
tropical characteristics by the end of the period, but this
remains to be seen.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or
Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near
the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing.

2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the southeastern United States late this week and into the weekend.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.9N 54.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 22.1N 55.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 23.8N 57.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 25.6N 58.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 27.4N 60.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 29.0N 62.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 30.7N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 36.9N 62.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 44.0N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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