Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

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ABNT20 KNHC 180527
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Teddy, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical
Depression Twenty-Two, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have
increased during the past several hours. Earlier satellite-derived
wind data indicated that this system does not yet have a
well-defined center, but it is producing winds near
tropical-storm-force to its east. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development during the next
day or two and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
before the end of the week. This system is forecast move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A small low pressure system is embedded within a larger non-tropical
low. Although showers and thunderstorms associated with the smaller
low are showing signs of organization, the system will soon move
inland over Portugal and further tropical or subtropical development
is unlikely. The low is producing gale-force winds, and will likely
bring gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rain to portions of
western Portugal today and tonight. For more information about
potential hazards in Portugal, please see products issued by the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA). For more
information about marine hazards associated with this system, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Post-tropical cyclone Paulette is located several hundred miles
north-northwest of the Azores. The cyclone is forecast to move
quickly southward for the next several days and then stall over
marginally warm waters a few hundred miles south or south-southwest
of the Azores by the end of the weekend. The cyclone could
subsequently redevelop tropical characteristics late this weekend or
early next week while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of
Africa by early Saturday. Some gradual development of the system
will be possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the
Atmosphere (IPMA) are available on the web at https://www.ipma.pt.

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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