Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018 546 WTNT43 KNHC 040848TCDAT3Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 32NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018Leslie has shown no appreciable changes in its structure during thepast several hours, and it continues to be a little thin onconvection within its eyewall. Another more impressive band ofconvection extends nearly more than 120 n mi northwest of thecenter of the ragged eye. The initial intensity remains 70 kt forthis advisory, mainly based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers fromTAFB and SAB and an earlier SATCON estimate. Leslie's center hasreached sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius, and thesemarginal water temperatures are likely to cause a gradual decreasein the cyclone's winds during the next several days. The new NHCintensity forecast is mainly just an update to the previousforecast, largely following the HCCA guidance and the ICONintensity consensus.Leslie continues to move northward, or 350/7 kt, between ashortwave trough south of Nova Scotia and a mid-level ridge overthe central Atlantic. This northward motion should continue forthe next 36 hours before Leslie becomes trapped between twomid-level highs and is isolated from the mid-latitude westerlies tothe north, thus causing its forward motion to nearly stall by 48hours. By days 3 through 5, Leslie should feel enough influencefrom the westerlies and an approaching cold front to cause it tomove a bit faster toward the east or east-southeast over the northAtlantic. Like the intensity forecast, no major changes wererequired to the official track forecast, which is merely an updateto the previous NHC prediction.Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during thenext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. Theseswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New Englandand Atlantic Canada on Friday. Please consult products from yourlocal weather office as these conditions could causelife-threatening surf and rip currents.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 04/0900Z 31.4N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 33.0N 57.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 35.1N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 36.3N 58.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 36.8N 57.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 36.3N 54.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 35.5N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH120H 09/0600Z 34.5N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH$$Forecaster Berg

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