Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018 404 WTNT43 KNHC 030845TCDAT3Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018Deep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become betterorganized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye ininfrared satellite images. A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpassrevealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of brokenconvection surrounding it. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity hasbeen increased to 65 kt. This makes Leslie the sixth hurricaneof the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.The hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmentalconditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shearover the next day or two. These conditions should allow for someadditional strengthening. After 48 hours, Leslie will be movingover cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening laterin the period.Leslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears thatthe cyclone's equatorward motion has likely come to an end. Ashortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridgeto the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northwardby tonight. A northward motion is then expected to continue overthe next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turneastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic.The dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on thisscenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update ofthe previous advisory.Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over thenext couple of days across the southeastern coast of the UnitedStates, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of NewEngland and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week. Please consultproducts from your local weather office as these conditions couldcause life-threatening surf and rip currents.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 03/0900Z 29.6N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 29.7N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 30.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 32.8N 57.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 35.0N 57.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 37.1N 56.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 37.0N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH120H 08/0600Z 37.0N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH$$Forecaster Brown

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