Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 753 WTNT43 KNHC 290832TCDAT3Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 12NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018The deep convection has become more concentrated near the centerduring the past several hours indicating that Leslie is graduallyacquiring some tropical characteristics, but the cyclone is stilltoo attached to a complex deep-layer low. On this basis, Leslie isstill considered a subtropical storm in this advisory with aninitial intensity of 40 kt. Global models indicate that thesubtropical cyclone will continue to be embedded within strongnortherly shear during the next 2 days or so. After that time, theshear is forecast to relax and with a warm ocean along the cyclone'spath, Leslie is forecast to become fully tropical and reachhurricane status by the end of the forecast period. SHIPS model andits derivatives strengthen Leslie significantly, but the NHCforecast is a little less aggressive, and it follows the intensityconsensus.Leslie has been moving toward the southwest or 230 degrees at 6 kt,steered by the flow around the western side of the large deep-layerlow in which Leslie is embedded. Since this steering pattern isnot expected to change, Leslie will probably continue on the samegeneral track for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the largelow weakens and the cyclone will become steered slowly northward bythe flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. Nevertheless,Leslie is forecast to meander over the north-central Atlantic forseveral more days. This is the solution provided by most of theglobal models, and the NHC forecast follows very closely themulti-model consensus aids and the corrected consensus HCCA.Large swells previously generated by Leslie when it was a strongerextratropical low have already reached Bermuda, and will soon reachthe Lesser and Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to reachportions of the east coast of the United States by Sunday. Theseswells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 29/0900Z 35.2N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 33.5N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 33.2N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 02/0600Z 32.3N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 04/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH$$Forecaster Avila

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