Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 947 WTNT45 KNHC 161441TCDAT5Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 16NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020181100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018Joyce is barely a tropical cyclone at the moment. The cloudpattern consists of a low-level swirl with a small patch of deepconvection located about 80 n mi northeast of the center and anotherpatch of weakening convection well removed from the center in thenortheast quadrant. Visible satellite images and a partial ASCATpass indicate that the circulation of the cyclone has also becomeincreasingly elongated from northeast to southwest. Based on thesystem's appearance and the satellite intensity estimates, theinitial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Joyce a tropicaldepression.The depression is moving east-northeastward at 16 kt within themid-latitude westerlies, and this motion should continue throughtonight. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to slowdown and turn southeastward and then southwestward as it is movesin the flow on the east side of a building low- to mid-level ridge.The track models are in fairly good agreement, and little overallchange was made to the previous NHC forecast.Joyce is currently in a quite hostile environment of 30-40 kt ofwest-southwesterly shear. Even though SSTs are relatively warm,the ongoing strong shear and nearby dry air should continue to causethe cyclone to gradually weaken. Although the NHC forecast showsJoyce hanging on as a tropical depression for a couple of more days,it is very possible that the system could degenerate into a troughor a remnant low at any time during that period.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 16/1500Z 34.7N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Cangialosi

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