Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 716 WTNT45 KNHC 141442TCDAT5Tropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 8NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020181100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018Joyce has again changed little in organization since the lastadvisory, with several small bands of convection to the east andnortheast of the partly exposed center. The initial intensityremains 35 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates fromTAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus.The initial motion is now 180/7. Joyce is currently being steeredby the larger and stronger Helene to its east, and a southward tosoutheastward motion is expected for the next 12 h or so. AsHelene passes to the east-northeast of Joyce, Joyce should turneastward and northeastward with a faster forward speed due to theapproach of a mid-latitude trough from the west. The global modelshave again trended toward a faster northeastward motion after 24 h,and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to be faster and alittle farther to the east.There is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy from theprevious advisory. Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast toincrease over the cyclone within the next day or two, which shouldprevent Joyce from strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for littlechange in wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as theshear increases further. The global models mostly dissipate Joyceby day 4, but the system could lose its deep convection and becomepost-tropical before that time.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 14/1500Z 31.6N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 31.3N 44.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 32.0N 42.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 33.2N 41.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 34.6N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 36.0N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Beven

More...