Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 326 WTNT41 KNHC 141449TCDAT1Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 61NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0620181100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018Florence's satellite signature remains very impressive even thoughthe eye is now located just inland over southeastern North Carolinanear Cape Fear. However, land interaction has taken its toll on theinner-core circulation, and the previously well-defined eye inradar imagery has shrunk and become filled with rain echoes. Theadvisory intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on earlierreports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAADoppler weather radar velocity data from Wilmington and MoreheadCity, and nearby surface observations. The central pressure of 958mb is based on observations from a NOAA NOS site in WrightsvilleBeach and a Weatherflow private station in Federal Point. AnotherAir Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be sampling the portion ofFlorence's circulation over water during the next few hours.Florence has turned west-southwestward and the motion estimateis now 245/03 kt. Florence is expected to remain embedded within aweak steering flow regime within a weakness in the subtropicalridge, resulting in a slow westward motion for the next 36-48 hoursacross South Carolina. As a shortwave trough currently located overthe eastern Great Lakes to Maryland moves eastward away from theregion over the next 2 days, the ridge will begin to build back inand shift eastward, allowing Florence or its remnants to graduallyturn northward over the weekend, and then move northeastward intothe mid-latitude westerlies as an extratropical low. The new NHCforecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and is close tothe middle of the model guidance envelope.Wind data from the earlier aircraft mission, along with Dopplerradar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that Florencehas weakened. Additional slow weakening is expected today as thecenter of Florence moves farther inland, with more rapid weakeningforecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across SouthCarolina. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than theprevious advisory, and closely follows the trend of Decay SHIPSmodel.Although coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside latertoday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazardassociated with slow-moving Florence is and will be extremely heavyrainfall. More than 14 inches of rain has already fallen in manyareas across southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still tocome, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inlandthrough the weekend.Key Messages:1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring alongportions of the North Carolina coast and will continue throughtoday and tonight. This surge is also likely along portions of theSouth Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation isexpected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuseand Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolongedsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinasand the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,as Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland.3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions ofthe North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions ofthe South Carolina coast later today. Strong winds could alsospread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the nextcouple of days.4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 14/1500Z 34.0N 78.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 33.9N 78.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 33.8N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 33.9N 80.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 34.7N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1200Z 37.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 41.2N 78.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND120H 19/1200Z 44.4N 68.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND$$Forecaster Stewart

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