Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018 318 WTNT43 KNHC 120833TCDAT3Tropical Storm Chris Discussion Number 23NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018Deep convection has decreased considerable, and the cloud pattern istaking the typical shape of cyclones during extratropical transitionwith the rain shield expanding toward the northwest quadrant. Only asmall area of thunderstorms remain near the center. Dvorak numbersfrom TAFB and SAB are decreasing, and assuming that the cyclone hasweakened since the last ASCAT pass several hours ago, the initialintensity is set at 60 kt in this advisory. Chris will be movingover much colder waters, and with the increase in shear, the cycloneis forecast to acquire extratropical characteristics as it movesvery near the extreme southern portion of Newfoundland later today.After that time, the post-tropical cyclone should continue towardthe northeast and become absorbed by a larger cyclone in about 3 or4 days.Chris is now moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 30 kt.The cyclone is already embedded within the fast mid-latitudewesterlies, and this flow should continue to steer Chris on thisgeneral track until it becomes absorbed. Track models are inexcellent agreement in both direction and speed, increasingthe confidence in the NHC forecast.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 12/0900Z 42.1N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 45.4N 55.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 13/0600Z 49.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 52.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 54.5N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 60.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Avila

More...