Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 576 WTNT43 KNHC 111459 TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 The IR signature of Chris has fluctuated substantially this morning. The eye became obscured by clouds shortly after sunrise, and an SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC indicated that the vortex had become tilted, with the mid-level eye displaced to the east of the low-level center of circulation. Since that time, however, the eye has once again become more distinct in visible and IR imagery. Dvorak estimates from all agencies had decreased markedly at 1200 UTC but given the improvement of the cloud pattern since then, the initial intensity has been lowered only slightly, to 85 kt. For the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will be approaching and crossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and no further weakening is expected. In fact it is possible that Chris could even briefly re-intensify, as shown by some of the intensity guidance, although this is not explicitly shown in the forecast. Once the hurricane crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream in about 24 hours, all of the dynamical models indicate that Chris will quickly acquire extratropical characteristics and rapidly weaken while its wind field becomes more spread out. Given the lower initial intensity, the new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous one for the first 36 hours, but very similar thereafter, and is close to a consensus of the global and hurricane dynamical models. Almost no change has been made to the track forecast. Chris should continue accelerating toward the northeast ahead of an approaching mid-level trough over the next couple of days. By 96 hours, all of the global models forecast that Chris will begin to interact with another extratropical low, which should cause Chris to slow down, before the two lows eventually merge by day 5. The global models are still in very good agreement on the track of Chris, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast and confidence remains high in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 36.4N 67.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 38.7N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 42.7N 59.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 46.9N 53.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1200Z 50.3N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z 56.8N 26.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/1200Z 62.0N 16.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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