Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 156 WTNT43 KNHC 110839TCDAT3 Hurricane Chris Discussion Number 19NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018 Chris continues to have a very distinct eye, but the surroundingconvection is not as strong as a few hours ago. Dvorak T-numbersare either steady or lower, so the initial intensity is kept at 90kt in this advisory. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen alittle during the next 12 to 18 hours while is moving over theGulf Stream or warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will moveover increasingly cold waters, and it should begin to acquireextratropical characteristics as it passes south of Newfoundland. Satellite fixes indicate that Chris has increased its forwardspeed, and is now moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 19kt. The hurricane is already embedded withing the fast flow ahead ofa large mid-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steerthe hurricane northeastward over the open Atlantic with additionalincrease in forward speed. Models are in remarkably good agreementand consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. Thisincreases considerably the confidence in the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 35.3N 69.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 37.2N 67.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 40.9N 62.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 45.0N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 48.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z 55.5N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0600Z 63.0N 15.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$Forecaster Avila

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