Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019 000WTNT44 KNHC 122034TCDAT4Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019500 PM AST Sat Oct 12 2019Convection has continued to persist near the center of Melissathroughout the day, and only in the past few hours have the affectsof increasing westerly shear begun to erode the convection from thewestern side of the cyclone. A pair of scatterometer passes latethis morning showed that the wind field associated with the stormhad contracted, with the strongest winds occurring within 50 n mi ofthe center. They also revealed that the radius of maximum winds haddecreased to 20 n mi. Based on these data along with a tropicalstructure apparent in satellite and microwave data, it is likelythat Melissa completed a transition to a tropical cyclone at somepoint this morning. A recent Dvorak classification from TAFB, anobjective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT, and an earlier scatterometerpass all support an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory.The westerly shear beginning to affect Melissa is expected togradually increase over the next few days. Through tonight, thecyclone will move over waters of 23-24 C. In addition, the uppertrough over the storm that has aided in maintaining its convectionwill weaken and lift northeast of the cyclone over the next day orso. The combination of these factors should cause Melissa to weaken,and the cyclone is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low bySunday. The global model intensity forecasts appear to becapturing the strongest winds in a frontal zone well-removed to thenortheast of Melissa and not directly associated with the cycloneitself. Thus, the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one,and continues to be lower than the global model guidance.Melissa is moving east-northeastward, or 070/10 kt. The increasingwesterly flow will cause the cyclone to gradually accelerate throughMonday. This motion will continue, with a slight turn to the east ina few days, just before the cyclone is absorbed by a frontal zone.The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and in themiddle of the various consensus aids.Ongoing hazards from coastal flooding will continue to be covered bynon-tropical products from local National Weather Service forecastoffices.Key Messages:1. Although Melissa is forecast to weaken and move away from theeast coast, minor to moderate coastal flooding is still expectedalong portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southeastern coastsaround times of high tide for the remainder of the weekend. For moreinformation, see products issued by local National Weather Serviceforecast offices at weather.gov.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 12/2100Z 38.4N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 39.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 39.8N 60.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0600Z 40.7N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1800Z 41.6N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1800Z 42.4N 39.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE$$Forecaster Latto

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