Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 000FONT15 KNHC 190240PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MONPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16)GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20)SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28)SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23)BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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