Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000WTNT35 KNHC 190239TCPAT5BULLETINTropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 7NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1020191100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019...JERRY STRENGTHENING......LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...15.4N 51.8WABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDSMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* Barbuda* Anguilla* St. Maarten* St. Martin* St. Barthelemy* Saba and St. EustatiusA Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitorthe progress of Jerry. Additional watches could be issued onThursday.For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry waslocated near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. Jerry ismoving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected overthe next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry willbe near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and passnorth of Puerto Rico on Saturday.Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane onThursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday orSaturday.Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)from the center.The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical CycloneDiscussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHCand on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watchareas by early Friday.RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulationsof 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across thenorthern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portionsof the northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday. These swells arelikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.Please consult products from your local weather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.$$Forecaster Pasch

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