Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 000FONT15 KNHC 251448PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THUPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18)GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25)PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21)CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 19(31)PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 13(31)SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) 2(23)PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20)AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16)SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 10(29) 1(30)VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 7(23) 1(24)SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 7(31) 1(32)SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20)SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20)ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20)ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 1(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) X(21) X(21)GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 51(55) 2(57) X(57)AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23)AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 19(37) X(37) X(37)DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9)DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46)MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15)MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 9(60) X(60) X(60)SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22)SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 39(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51)SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18)SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 21(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61)BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)BARBADOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17)GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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