Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 835 WTNT42 KNHC 141451TCDAT2Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 17NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0220191000 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019Barry's radar and satellite presentations have continued todegrade, which is typical for an inland tropical cyclone. However,some curved rain bands producing sustained tropical-storm-forcewinds still exist over water and along the south-central andsouthwestern coastal areas of Louisiana. Data from the Ft. PolkWSR-88D radar indicated average Doppler velocity values of 50-59 ktat 11,000-14,000 ft between 0900-1200 UTC this morning over the Gulfof Mexico, which would yield equivalent surface winds of 40-45 kt.Thus, Barry's intensity was maintained at 40 kt at the 1200 UTCsynoptic time. Since then, Doppler velocities have decreased toaround 45 kt at 11,000 ft and surface winds of 34 kt have recentlybeen reported at the NOAA NOS site at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana.Therefore, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt at the 1500 UTCadvisory time. The pressure of 1006 mb is based on nearby surfaceobservations.The initial motion estimate is 360/08 kt. Barry is forecast tocontinue moving northward today and tonight into a break in thesubtropical ridge, and turn toward north-northeast and northeastlate Monday into Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar tothe previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of thevarious simple consensus models and the NOAA HCCA model.Barry will weaken further today as it continues to move inland, andit should become a tropical depression by tonight if not sooner.The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hoursand dissipate on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley.Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and thepotential for flooding, including river flooding, continues fromLouisiana northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley.Key Messages:1. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river floodingare still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana upthrough the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday.Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embeddedareas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid waterrises.2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions ofthe Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continuealong portions of the Louisiana coast for a few more hours.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 14/1500Z 31.8N 93.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 32.8N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 34.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 35.7N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 37.4N 91.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND$$Forecaster Stewart

More...