Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019 174 WTNT42 KNHC 140839TCDAT2Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 16NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019400 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019Barry continues to move farther inland with the center now locatedover western Louisiana. Surface observations indicate that theminimum pressure has risen to 1005 mb, and the maximum winds areestimated to be near 40 kt, based on Doppler radar velocity data,but this intensity estimate could be a little generous. Theselingering tropical-storm-force winds are confined to a convectiveband over water and near the coast of Louisiana south andsoutheast of the center.The tropical storm has wobbled a bit to the left recently, butsmoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 335/7 kt.The system is expected to turn northward later today toward aweakness in the subtropical ridge, and a north to north-northeastmotion is expected until it dissipates in two to three days. TheNHC track forecast is just a little to the west of the previousone, due to the initial position being further west thananticipated.Barry is forecast to weaken as it continues inland, and it shouldbecome a tropical depression later today. The GFS and ECMWF modelssuggest that Barry should lose much of its deep convection andbecome a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours and dissipate entirelyshortly after that over the Middle Mississippi Valley.Even though Barry is weakening, the threat of heavy rains and thepotential for flooding continues from Louisiana northward throughthe Lower Mississippi Valley.Key Messages:1. Although Barry is inland, life-threatening storm surgeinundation is still occurring along the coast of south-centralLouisiana.2. Life-threatening flash flooding and significant river floodingare still expected along Barry's path inland from Louisiana upthrough the lower Mississippi Valley, through at least Monday.Widespread rainfall of 4 inches or more is expected, with embeddedareas of significantly heavier rain that will lead to rapid waterrises.3. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within portions ofthe Tropical Storm Warning area. These conditions could continuealong portions of the Louisiana coast for several more hours.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 14/0900Z 31.4N 93.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 32.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 35.2N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 36.7N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Cangialosi

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