Issued at 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000WTNT34 KNHC 112349TCPAT4BULLETINTropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 21ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018800 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018...MICHAEL LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS......DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING STILLOCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...36.5N 77.8WABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF ROANOKE RAPIDS NORTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North CarolinaA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Murrells Inlet South Carolina to Duck North Carolina* Pamlico and Albemarle SoundsA Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from thecoastline.For storm information specific to your area, including possibleinland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by yourlocal National Weather Service forecast office.DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael waslocated near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 77.8 West. Michael ismoving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motionis expected to continue with an increase in forward speed throughtonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forwardspeed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, thecenter of Michael will cross into southeastern Virginia during thenext couple of hours and then move into the western Atlantic Oceanovernight.Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with highergusts. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes apost-tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight and Friday.Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),primarily over water to the southeast of the center. A sustainedwind of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) wasrecently reported at Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station in NorthCarolina.The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surfaceobservations is 989 mb (29.20 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and thetide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded byrising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has thepotential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surgeoccurs at the time of high tide...Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inletto Duck...2-4 ftWIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions ofnortheastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina.Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts will spread from centralNorth Carolina and southern Virginia across northeastern NorthCarolina and eastern Virginia during the next several hours.Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions ofsoutheastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and theDelmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michaelbecomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulationsof 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south-central to southeast Virginia, including the southern DelmarvaPeninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in NorthCarolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threateningflash floods.Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastalnorthern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening fromnortheastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into theDelmarva Peninsula.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.$$Forecaster Berg

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