Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000FONT14 KNHC 112051PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MONPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 44(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 64(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 17 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) PAX RIVER NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) RICHMOND VA 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)NORFOLK NAS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74)NORFOLK VA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)OCEANA NAS VA 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 86 X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) RALEIGH NC 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ROCKY MT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)ROCKY MT NC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 43 X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) FAYETTEVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 34 68 X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) NEW RIVER NC 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) MOREHEAD CITY 34 58 X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SURF CITY NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALD HEAD ISL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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