Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000WTNT34 KNHC 112051TCPAT4BULLETINTropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 21NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018...MICHAEL PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONSOF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA......DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONSOF VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...36.1N 78.8WABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River SouthCarolina has been discontinued.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North CarolinaA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina* Pamlico and Albemarle SoundsA Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from thecoastline.For storm information specific to your area, including possibleinland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by yourlocal National Weather Service forecast office.DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK----------------------At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael waslocated near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 78.8 West. Michael ismoving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this motionis expected to continue with an increase in forward speed throughtonight. A turn toward the east-northeast at an even faster forwardspeed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track,the center of Michael will move across eastern North Carolina andsoutheastern Virginia this evening, and move into the westernAtlantic Ocean tonight.Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-tropical lowover the Atlantic late tonight and Friday.Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km),primarily over water to the southeast of the center. A wind gust of53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at Danville, Virginia, and agust of 56 mph (91 km/h) was reported at Burlington, North Carolina.A sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h)at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent surfaceobservations is 990 mb (29.24 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and thetide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded byrising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has thepotential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surgeoccurs at the time of high tide...Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inletto Duck...2-4 ftWIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions ofnortheastern South Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina.Damaging tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occuring acrossportions of central North Carolina and southern Virginia and willspread across northeastern North Carolina and eastern Virginiathis evening and tonight.Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions ofsoutheastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and theDelmarva Peninsula late tonight and Friday morning when Michaelbecomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast.RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulationsof 4 to 7 inches from north-central North Carolina, into south-central to southeast Virginia, including the southern DelmarvaPeninsula. Isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are possible in NorthCarolina and Virginia. This rainfall could lead to life-threateningflash floods.Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches expected across the coastalnorthern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this evening fromnortheastern North Carolina across southeast Virginia into theDelmarva Peninsula.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.$$Forecaster Brown

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