Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018 000WTNT43 KNHC 112048TCDAT3Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 62NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018Leslie's inner-core structure has improved a little during the daytoday. A ragged banding eye was present in visible imagery untilsunset, though this feature is not apparent in IR imagery. Recentsatellite intensity estimates range from 65 kt to 90 kt, so Leslie'sintensity has been raised to 75 kt as a compromise of all availableestimates.Leslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initialmotion estimate of 065/18 kt. Confidence remains high that Lesliewill continue gaining speed on that heading for the next 24 h orso. Beyond that time, the ensemble spread is still very high,though the 12Z deterministic global models are generally inagreement that Leslie will separate from a mid-level trough, slowdown, and turn southward over the weekend. While the exact timing ofthis turn is still highly uncertain, the multi-model consensusbrings Leslie near Madeira Island on Saturday as a tropical storm.The new official forecast shows a very similar track, and thegovernment of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for thatisland. While the exact path of Leslie is still uncertain, thecyclone is still expected to produce tropical storm conditions overa wide area through Saturday, and interests on Madeira should notfocus on the exact track of Leslie.No large changes in intensity are anticipated during the next 24 h,though some fluctuations are possible, up or down. By 36 h, Lesliewill reach much cooler waters and encounter an increase in windshear which should lead to steady weakening. The intensity guidanceis in surprisingly good agreement given the continued large trackspread, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of theguidance envelope from 36 h onward. By 96 h, odds are increasingthat Leslie could lose all of its convection and becomepost-tropical, though this possibility still depends heavily onLeslie following a track similar to the NHC official forecast.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 11/2100Z 29.9N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 31.0N 33.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 32.5N 27.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 33.3N 21.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 33.1N 17.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 30.9N 16.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 29.0N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL120H 16/1800Z 28.0N 24.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$Forecaster Zelinsky

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