Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 1

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Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020


000
WTNT42 KNHC 142041
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

Earlier this afternoon, one-minute visible satellite imagery
clearly showed that an area of low pressure off the mid-Atlantic
coast of the U.S. had developed a well defined center. Banding
convection wraps from the northeast to the southeast quadrant of
the cyclone, and a combination of surface obs, ship reports, and
buoy data all indicate that the system is not frontal. Although its
organization is limited by strong southwesterly upper-level winds,
the convection appears to be sufficiently well organized to
classify the system as a tropical cyclone. Earlier ASCAT data
indicated that the maximum winds were between 30 and 35 kt, so the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt, assuming some slight
undersampling may have occurred. Kyle is the earliest 11th named
storm on record for the Atlantic basin. The previous record was
Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005.

Kyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion
of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely
tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. A mid-latitude
trough will continue to steer the system generally
east-northeastward for the next few days, with some increase in
forward speed. This will cause the storm to move quickly
northeastward away from the U.S. coast and well south of the
Canadian Maritimes.

As long as the tropical cyclone remains over warm waters, some
strengthening is possible, and this is reflected in all of the
intensity guidance. That said, strong upper-level winds will likely
keep the system sufficiently sheared to prevent significant tropical
strengthening. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin within
48 h, and should be complete by 60 h. Sometime around or just after
72 h, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a
larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic.
The NHC intensity forecast is based on the multi-model consensus,
with a little extra weight given to the global models for the
extratropical phase.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 37.7N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 40.0N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 41.4N 60.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 42.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 43.1N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1800Z 43.1N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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