Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
000
WTNT42 KNHC 030236
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
Arlene is only producing small bursts of convection to the north and
northeast of its exposed low-level center tonight. The Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone earlier this
evening and reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt in the
northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds support an
initial intensity of 35 kt, which is also consistent with the
latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS.
Arlene is moving south-southeastward (155 degrees) at 6 kt. The
cyclone remains embedded within a mid-level trough, which is
resulting in significant vertical wind shear over the system. The
steering flow on the upstream side of this trough should keep the
cyclone moving generally southeastward during the next day or so. An
increasingly dry and confluent environment aloft, along with
continued deep-layer shear, is expected to limit new convective
development overnight. The NHC forecast shows Arlene spinning down
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, degenerating to a remnant low
on Saturday and dissipating by early Sunday.
Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern
Florida peninsula through Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 25.4N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 24.4N 85.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
More...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 030236
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023
Arlene is only producing small bursts of convection to the north and
northeast of its exposed low-level center tonight. The Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone earlier this
evening and reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt in the
northwestern portion of the circulation. These winds support an
initial intensity of 35 kt, which is also consistent with the
latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS.
Arlene is moving south-southeastward (155 degrees) at 6 kt. The
cyclone remains embedded within a mid-level trough, which is
resulting in significant vertical wind shear over the system. The
steering flow on the upstream side of this trough should keep the
cyclone moving generally southeastward during the next day or so. An
increasingly dry and confluent environment aloft, along with
continued deep-layer shear, is expected to limit new convective
development overnight. The NHC forecast shows Arlene spinning down
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, degenerating to a remnant low
on Saturday and dissipating by early Sunday.
Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern
Florida peninsula through Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 25.4N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 24.4N 85.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 23.5N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
More...