Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020
000
WTNT23 KNHC 051446
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA AND FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA IN MEXICO COULD OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 89.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 89.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 90.0W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 90.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 0SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.3N 90.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 90.9W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.2N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.7N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 43.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 89.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
More...
000
WTNT23 KNHC 051446
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020
1500 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA AND FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI
* LAKE BORGNE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN THE WATCH AREA IN MEXICO COULD OCCUR
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 89.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 89.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 90.0W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.8N 90.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 0SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.3N 90.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.1N 90.9W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.2N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.7N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 43.0N 89.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 89.9W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
More...