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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Central East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
However, satellite-derived wind data from overnight indicated that
the system did not yet have a well-defined center of circulation.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while it moves westward or northwestward at
about 10 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. Western East Pacific:
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
3. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days from
a tropical wave currently moving across the southern portion of
Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Berg/Hagen
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