Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000WTNT43 KNHC 272032TCDAT3Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for atropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remainsevident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring ofcloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of thedeep convection can be attributed to an environment of very coldtemperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remainintact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latestsubjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchangedfrom 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS haveincreased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has beenincreased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative.There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a barocliniczone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north ofPablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zonesoon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclonelose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. Thesystem is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of amuch larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days.The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread inthe model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn thepost-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of theguidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows themajority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In thisscenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forwardmotion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turntoward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to itswest begins to steer the cyclone.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Latto
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