Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
543
WTNT42 KNHC 241459
TCDAT2
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this
morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in
a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped
pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A
drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has
provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100
UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a
pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous
estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the
availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon
was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial
intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could
still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind
relationships.
Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now
moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward
the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a
forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by
Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through
early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly
clustered track guidance.
The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C
for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures
aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity
today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are
expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts
with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the
inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a
large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This
cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low
over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low
pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over
portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 37.9N 60.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Latto
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543
WTNT42 KNHC 241459
TCDAT2
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020
The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this
morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in
a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped
pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A
drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has
provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100
UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a
pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous
estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the
availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon
was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial
intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could
still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind
relationships.
Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now
moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward
the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a
forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by
Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through
early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly
clustered track guidance.
The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C
for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures
aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity
today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are
expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts
with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the
inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a
large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This
cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low
over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low
pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over
portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 37.9N 60.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 39.7N 57.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 42.8N 51.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 26/0000Z 46.7N 41.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/1200Z 50.9N 30.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 27/0000Z 55.6N 21.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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