View Full Version : Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 62

09-20-2017, 04:05 PM
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 000WTNT42 KNHC 202038TCDAT2Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 62NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017Jose has generally changed little since the previous advisory.Geostationary and microwave satellite data show that the storm isstill producing well-defined convective bands on the north side ofthe circulation. Some of these outer bands are approaching thesouthern New England coastline. The initial wind speed is held at60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. This estimate is also infair agreement with an ASCAT pass from earlier today, which alsoshowed that Jose has a very large wind field. Another Air Forcereconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this systemlater this evening, and should provide a better assessment ofJose's intensity.The tropical storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt steered by atrough over eastern Canada. This trough should cause Jose to moveeast-northeastward at a slower pace tonight. Thereafter, thetrough is expected to bypass the storm, leaving Jose in very weaksteering currents. As a result, Jose is forecast to drift westwardbeginning Thursday night and continue in that direction throughthe weekend. The models have trended a little to the west at theend of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast has followedsuit.Jose is currently moving along the edge of the Gulf Stream, and isexpected to remain over this oceanic environment for a few moredays. These relatively cool waters, a progressively drier airmass,and an expected increase in wind shear should cause a gradualweakening trend during the next several days. The models are ingood agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast islargely an update of the previous one.KEY MESSAGES:1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of theU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some directimpacts in portions of New England during the next day or two, and atropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island,Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware tosouthern New England during the next several days. Please seeproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of theU.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currentconditions for the next several days in these areas.4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inchesin Nantucket as it passes offshore. This rainfall could causeisolated flash flooding.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 20/2100Z 39.2N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 39.6N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 39.6N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 39.6N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 39.5N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/1800Z 39.3N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1800Z 39.3N 70.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 25/1800Z 39.4N 71.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$Forecaster Cangialosi

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