View Full Version : Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 59

09-19-2017, 09:39 PM
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 000WTNT42 KNHC 200248TCDAT2Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 59NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1220171100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017An Air Force plane once again investigated Jose tonight, andalthough the central pressure remained low, near 973 mb, the surfacewinds were gradually decreasing and do not support hurricanestrength. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak T-numberswhich indicated weakening. On this basis, the initial intensityhas been lowered to 60 kt. Although the shear is not too high, Joseis moving over cool waters. This should result in additionalweakening and Jose is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone inabout 48 hours.Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Joseis moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 8 kt. Currently,Jose in embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, butmost of the global models forecast the development of a ridge to thenorth in two days. This new pattern should block the motionof the storm and Jose should begin to meander. The NHC forecast isvery similar to the previous one and follows the ECMWF model and theHFIP corrected consensus model HCCA. It also uses the input fromNOAA Ocean Prediction Center.KEY MESSAGES:1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of theU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some directimpacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warningis in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, andNantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track wouldincrease the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coastfrom Long Island to southern New England.2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware tosouthern New England during the next several days. Please seeproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, andmuch of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to causedangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several daysin these areas.4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inchesare expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5inches in Martha's Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolatedflash flooding.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 20/0300Z 37.9N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 38.8N 69.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 39.6N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 39.7N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 39.5N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/0000Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL120H 25/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL$$Forecaster Avila

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