PDA

View Full Version : Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15



Belizeans.com
09-19-2017, 02:55 PM
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000FONT15 KNHC 192043PWSAT5HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1520172100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H.Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIMEWIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONSCHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYSPROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENTX INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENTPROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SATPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUNFORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -LOCATION KTELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19)GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34) 5(39)SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16)SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 39(45) 14(59) 2(61)MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) X(30)MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17)GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) 45(84) 4(88) X(88)GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 48(59) 6(65) X(65)GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 3(42) 1(43)GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9)PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17)CAPE BEATA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) X(14) 1(15)PUERTO PLATA 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 40(60) 16(76) 1(77) X(77)PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 18(44) 1(45) X(45)PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 12(21) 1(22) X(22)SANTO DOMINGO 34 1 5( 6) 34(40) 19(59) 5(64) 1(65) X(65)SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25)SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)PONCE PR 34 62 38(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)PONCE PR 50 12 84(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)PONCE PR 64 1 72(73) 4(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)AGUADILLA PR 34 10 88(98) 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)AGUADILLA PR 50 2 87(89) 7(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)AGUADILLA PR 64 X 51(51) 27(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)SAN JUAN PR 34 82 18(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)SAN JUAN PR 50 35 63(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)SAN JUAN PR 64 2 75(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)VIEQUES PR 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)VIEQUES PR 50 93 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)VIEQUES PR 64 24 47(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71)SAINT THOMAS 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)SAINT THOMAS 50 81 7(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)SAINT THOMAS 64 10 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)SAINT CROIX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)SAINT CROIX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)SAINT CROIX 64 76 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)SAINT MAARTEN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)BARBUDA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)ANTIGUA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)GUADELOUPE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)$$FORECASTER BEVEN

More... (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/192043.shtml)