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View Full Version : Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 15



Belizeans.com
09-19-2017, 02:55 PM
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000WTNT25 KNHC 192042TCMAT5HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1520172100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANEWATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICALSTORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA.THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THEHURRICANE WARNING FOR DOMINICA.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES* CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATAA TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS* ST. MAARTEN* ANGUILLA* GUADELOUPE* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DOMINICANREPUBLIC AND HAITI* WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUEA HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS* ST. MAARTEN* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY* ANGUILLA* ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMASA HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTEDSOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE ANDPROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLEWITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORETHE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF MARIA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIREDTONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 64.0W AT 19/2100ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NMPRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 916 MBEYE DIAMETER 5 NMMAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICALMILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 64.0W AT 19/2100ZAT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 63.6WFORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 65.2WMAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 18.4N 66.7W...OVER PUERTO RICOMAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N 68.1W...OVER WATERMAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N 69.4WMAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.5N 71.0WMAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NMON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAYOUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 25.5N 72.0WMAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 72.5WMAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 64.0WNEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z$$FORECASTER BEVEN

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