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View Full Version : Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14



Belizeans.com
09-19-2017, 10:54 AM
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000FONT15 KNHC 191448PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHENTHE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SATPERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20)GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) 9(41)SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17)SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 28(57) 3(60)MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 2(31)MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 60(73) 11(84) 1(85)GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 17(61) X(61)GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 17(39) X(39) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 1(20)PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 2(15) X(15) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 26(32) 36(68) 4(72) X(72)PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 30(36) 3(39) X(39)PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 30(47) 14(61) 1(62) 1(63)SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23)SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE PR 34 3 87(90) 8(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)PONCE PR 50 1 54(55) 27(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84)PONCE PR 64 X 17(17) 38(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) AGUADILLA PR 34 2 61(63) 33(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)AGUADILLA PR 50 X 19(19) 61(80) 6(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)AGUADILLA PR 64 X 3( 3) 51(54) 9(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) SAN JUAN PR 34 5 92(97) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)SAN JUAN PR 50 2 83(85) 12(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)SAN JUAN PR 64 X 42(42) 38(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) VIEQUES PR 34 40 60(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)VIEQUES PR 50 5 91(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)VIEQUES PR 64 X 72(72) 6(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT THOMAS 34 61 38(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)SAINT THOMAS 50 9 81(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)SAINT THOMAS 64 1 34(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT CROIX 34 93 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)SAINT CROIX 50 66 33(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)SAINT CROIX 64 5 78(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT MAARTEN 34 83 2(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)SAINT MAARTEN 50 18 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)SAINT MAARTEN 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) BARBUDA 34 59 1(60) X(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)AVES 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)AVES 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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