View Full Version : Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 14

09-19-2017, 10:54 AM
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000WTNT35 KNHC 191447TCPAT5BULLETINHurricane Maria Advisory Number 14NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL1520171100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO......PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALLFLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.3N 63.1WABOUT 115 MI...180 KM W OF GUADELOUPEABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF ST. CROIXMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:None.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Guadeloupe* Dominica* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat* U.S. Virgin Islands* British Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and ViequesA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Antigua and Barbuda* Saba and St. Eustatius* St. Maarten* Anguilla* MartiniqueA Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Saba and St. Eustatius* St. Maarten* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy* Anguilla* Isla Saona to Puerto PlataA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-HaitiborderA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life andproperty should be rushed to completion.A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours beforethe anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, andthe Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.Additional watches and warnings may be required today.For storm information specific to your area in the United States,including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitorproducts issued by your local National Weather Service forecastoffice. For storm information specific to your area outside theUnited States, please monitor products issued by your nationalmeteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was locatednear latitude 16.3 North, longitude 63.1 West. Maria is movingtoward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this generalmotion is expected to continue through Wednesday night. On theforecast track, the eye of Maria will move over the northeasternCaribbean Sea today, and then pass near or over the Virgin Islandsand Puerto Rico on Wednesday.Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with highergusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations inintensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria isforecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricaneuntil it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from thecenter and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles(220 km). NOAA buoy 42060, located a little west of the center,recently reported 1-min average winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) and awind gust of 83 mph (133 km/h).The minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force ReserveHurricane Hunter aircraft is 927 mb (27.37 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughoutportions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands thismorning, and spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonightand Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are occuring over theremainder of the Leeward Islands, and should spread into the VirginIslands and Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Hurricaneconditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in theDominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditionspossible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possiblein the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic onWednesday.Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountainsand on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large anddestructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area nearwhere the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and theBritish Virgin Islands.The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will causenormally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising watersmoving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reachthe following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at thetime of high tide...Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ftThe deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and tothe north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will beaccompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-relatedflooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidalcycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For informationspecific to your area, please see products issued by your localNational Weather Service forecast office.RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainaccumulations through Thursday:Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20inches.U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20inches.Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,isolated 10 inches.Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides.SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and ripcurrent conditions. Please consult products from your localweather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.$$Forecaster Beven

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