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Belizeans.com
09-19-2017, 06:47 AM
Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017 000WTNT35 KNHC 191150TCPAT5BULLETINHurricane Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 13ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017800 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGINISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...16.2N 62.8WABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF GUADELOUPEABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF ST. CROIXMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued theTropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia.The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued theTropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the Grenadines.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...* Guadeloupe* Dominica* St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat* U.S. Virgin Islands* British Virgin Islands* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and ViequesA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Antigua and Barbuda* Saba and St. Eustatius* St. Maarten* Anguilla* MartiniqueA Hurricane Watch is in effect for...* Saba and St. Eustatius* St. Maarten* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy* Anguilla* Isla Saona to Puerto PlataA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* West of Puerto Plata to the northern Dominican Republic-HaitiborderA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expectedsomewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life andproperty should be rushed to completion.A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possiblewithin the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hoursbefore the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-forcewinds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult ordangerous.A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, andthe Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Maria.Additional watches and warnings may be required today.For storm information specific to your area in the UnitedStates, including possible inland watches and warnings, pleasemonitor products issued by your local National Weather Serviceforecast office. For storm information specific to your area outsidethe United States, please monitor products issued by your nationalmeteorological service.DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was locatednear latitude 16.2 North, longitude 62.8 West. Maria is movingtoward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this generalmotion is expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecasttrack, the eye of Maria will move over the northeastern CaribbeanSea today, and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonightand Wednesday.Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with highergusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane onthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations inintensity are likely during the next day or two, but Maria isforecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricanewhile it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) fromthe center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to125 miles (205 km). Sustained tropical storm force winds haverecently been reported from Guadeloupe and Antigua.The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force ReserveHurricane Hunter data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread throughoutportions of the hurricane warning area in the Leeward Islands thismorning. Hurricane conditions should spread through the remainderof the hurricane warning area later today and Wednesday. Hurricaneconditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in theDominican Republic late Wednesday, with tropical storm conditionspossible by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possiblein the tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic onWednesday.Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountainscould be much stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in thisadvisory.STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large anddestructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 7 to 11feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area nearwhere the center of Maria moves across the Leeward Islands and theBritish Virgin Islands.The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will causenormally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising watersmoving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reachthe following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at thetime of high tide...Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands...6 to 9 ftThe deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and tothe north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will beaccompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-relatedflooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidalcycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For informationspecific to your area, please see products issued by your localNational Weather Service forecast office.RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainaccumulations through Thursday:Central and southern Leeward Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20inches.U.S. and British Virgin Islands...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20inches.Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches.Northern Leeward Islands from Barbuda to Anguilla...4 to 8 inches,isolated 10 inches.Windward Islands and Barbados...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.Eastern Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.Rainfall on all of these islands will cause life-threatening flashfloods and mudslides.SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Lesser Antilles.These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and ripcurrent conditions. Please consult products from your localweather office.NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.$$Forecaster Beven

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