View Full Version : Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 16

09-18-2017, 03:02 PM
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000WTNT44 KNHC 182035TCDAT4Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 16NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017The convective burst that occurred near the center of Lee thismorning has dissipated leaving only a low-level cloud swirl. Theinitial intensity of the system is held at 30 kt, in agreementwith the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The shear over Leeis estimated to be close to 40 kt according to the SHIPS model,and these very hostile winds and dry air should cause Lee to weakenand degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours.The GFS and ECMWF suggest that whatever is left of Lee will likelyopen into a trough in 36 to 48 hours.The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt steered by thesouthwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over theeastern Atlantic. The weak system is expected to turn to thenorthwest and slow down tonight as it moves toward a trough, and itshould continue in that direction until it dissipates. Littlechange was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this oneremains near the middle of the guidance envelope.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 42.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 17.2N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 18.7N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Cangialosi

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