PDA

View Full Version : Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9



Belizeans.com
09-18-2017, 10:53 AM
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 181459 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 22(62) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 17(36) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 53(68) 11(79) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 12(53) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 9(36) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 4(24) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 2(20) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 33(65) 6(71) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 3(37) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 3(23) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 44(48) 13(61) 1(62) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 10(30) 1(31) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) PONCE PR 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 57(71) 23(94) X(94) X(94) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 41(72) 1(73) 1(74) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) 1(51) X(51) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 41(47) 43(90) 2(92) X(92) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 54(68) 2(70) X(70) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 43(48) 2(50) X(50) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 58(79) 18(97) X(97) X(97) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 36(77) 1(78) X(78) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 35(54) 1(55) X(55) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 42(46) 45(91) 7(98) X(98) X(98) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 53(61) 18(79) X(79) X(79) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 18(54) X(54) X(54) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 4( 5) 49(54) 35(89) 5(94) X(94) X(94) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 10(10) 41(51) 13(64) X(64) X(64) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 9(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT CROIX 34 2 5( 7) 71(78) 19(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 31(32) 44(76) 6(82) X(82) X(82) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 11(11) 39(50) 8(58) X(58) X(58) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 21(23) 47(70) 6(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 70(73) 18(91) 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 9(10) 26(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARBUDA 34 4 45(49) 11(60) 2(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) BARBUDA 50 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 13 63(76) 6(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) ANTIGUA 50 1 10(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ANTIGUA 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 81 16(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GUADELOUPE 50 5 34(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GUADELOUPE 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 34 3 79(82) 12(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) AVES 50 1 25(26) 36(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) AVES 64 X 8( 8) 25(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) DOMINICA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOMINICA 50 85 11(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) DOMINICA 64 48 35(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MARTINIQUE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MARTINIQUE 50 82 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) MARTINIQUE 64 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT LUCIA 34 65 1(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) SAINT LUCIA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT LUCIA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBADOS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRENADA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

More... (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/181459.shtml)