View Full Version : Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 7

06-06-2016, 08:40 PM
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 000WTNT43 KNHC 070237TCDAT3TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0320161100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016Surface observations and shortwave infrared imagery suggest thatthe center of Colin is just offshore of the coastline in the BigBend region of Florida, and the system should make landfall verysoon. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavyrainfall from the center of Colin, however, it is important to notfocus on the time or location of landfall, or on the exactforecast track. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal floodinghave been affecting much of Florida and these conditions shouldspread northward and northeastward over the southeast United States.The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, under the assumption thatwind speeds near this value are still being experienced at somelocations along the coast. Global models indicate that Colin willdeepen when it moves over the Atlantic, probably due to baroclinicenergetics. Although Colin is expected to lose tropicalcharacteristics within 24 hours, the models do not show it fullyembedded within a frontal zone, i.e. extratropical, until about 48hours. The official forecast goes with this scenario.The initial motion estimate is 050/19. Colin should acceleratenortheastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the easternUnited States for the next day or two. After that, the forwardspeed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with acouple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic.It should be noted that Colin will probably lose its status as atropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.In this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings onthe post-tropical cyclone.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 07/0300Z 29.8N 83.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 32.9N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 36.5N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 08/1200Z 41.0N 62.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 09/0000Z 45.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 49.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z 54.0N 31.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 12/0000Z 56.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Pasch

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