View Full Version : Tropical Storm COLIN Forecast Discussion Number 3

06-05-2016, 08:50 PM
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000WTNT43 KNHC 060242TCDAT3TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0320161000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016The cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and thelow-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery.The imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to theeast of where the low-level center was last found. AnotherHurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the stormaround 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating thecenter.The current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraftobservations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB. Strongsouthwesterly shear should limit significant intensification ofColin before it reaches Florida. The official intensity forecastis similar to the previous one, and close to the latest modelconsensus.Initial motion is an uncertain 010/08. The track forecast reasoninghas not changed from the previous advisory. Over the next day ortwo, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in theflow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf ofMexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic. Later,the cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies overthe north Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to thatof the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output.It is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exactforecast track of this system. Strong winds, heavy rains andcoastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 06/0300Z 23.6N 87.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 26.0N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 29.1N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 31.8N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 43.3N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 49.0N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 11/0000Z 54.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Pasch

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