View Full Version : Tropical Depression THREE Forecast Discussion Number 1

06-05-2016, 11:59 AM
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016 000WTNT43 KNHC 051501TCDAT3TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0320161000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016The low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsulaovernight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico thismorning. Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulationhas become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as atropical cyclone. The associated convective activity is located ina band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderatesouth to southwesterly shear. NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25to 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basisfor the initial intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve HurricaneHunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone'sintensity this afternoon.The large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong windshear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.Although the statistical guidance only shows a slight increasein winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHCforecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for thedepression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coastof Florida. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical overthe western Atlantic in about 3 days.The initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt. The depressionis forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a fasterforward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- toupper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over thewestern Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement duringfirst 36-48 hours. After moving over Florida, the cyclone shouldenter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motionover the north Atlantic.The primary hazards with this system are expected to be floodingfrom heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 05/1500Z 21.9N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$$Forecaster Brown

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