View Full Version : Tropical Depression BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 33

06-04-2016, 08:21 PM
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016 000WTNT42 KNHC 042030TCDAT2TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016Bonnie has lacked significant deep convection for several hours, andthe compact cyclone mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds.An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed winds near 30 kt in thesoutheast quadrant of the circulation, and the initial intensityis held at that value. Strong wind shear, dry air, and cold watersshould prevent the return of significant thunderstorm activity, andBonnie will likely degenerate into a remnant low tonight. Most ofthe models show the remnant low dissipating late Sunday or Monday.The depression has been moving east-southeastward, 110 degrees, atabout 12 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies. A general eastwardto east-southeastward motion with a slight increase in forwardspeed is expected until Bonnie dissipates. The official trackforecast is nudged a little to the south of the previous one, toaccount for the more southerly initial position and motion, andlies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 04/2100Z 35.0N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 34.5N 62.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 34.0N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z 33.3N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Cangialosi

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