View Full Version : Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 30

06-03-2016, 09:17 PM
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016 000WTNT42 KNHC 040233TCDAT2TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0220161100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016After the burst of deep convection noted earlier today,thunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminishedconsiderably with the only remaining convection occurring over asmall area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation. Themaximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a DvorakCurrent Intensity number from TAFB. Given the current lack of deepconvection, this intensity estimate may be generous. Since thesystem will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and verticalshear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48hours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become aremnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed byanother low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours.The initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie is moving along thenorthern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of themid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continuefor the next couple of days. The track model guidance is ingeneral agreement on a continued eastward motion with someacceleration over the next 48 hours. The official track forecastis a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to theprevious NHC track.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 04/0300Z 35.9N 69.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 35.7N 67.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 35.4N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 34.8N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 34.3N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Pasch

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