View Full Version : Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 29

06-03-2016, 04:24 PM
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016 000WTNT42 KNHC 032032TCDAT2TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016Somewhat unexpectedly, the convection associated with Bonnie hasincreased this afternoon to the point where the satellite intensityestimate from TAFB is now 35 kt. In addition, an ASCAT-B overpassnear 1400 UTC showed several 35-kt vectors about 30 n mi southeastof the center. Based on these data, Bonnie is again designated asa tropical storm with an initial intensity of 35 kt.The initial motion is now 090/11. Bonnie should move generallyeastward to east-southeastward between the subtropical ridge to thesouth and a developing baroclinic low to the northeast. The modelguidance has shifted a little southward since the last advisory,and the new forecast track is nudged southward as well.The current intensification is likely to be short lived, as Bonniewill be moving over sea surface temperatures colder than 24C inabout 12 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for weakeningthrough the forecast period, with Bonnie degenerating to apost-tropical low between 12 and 24 hours. The low shouldsubsequently weaken to a trough between 48 and 72 hours.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 03/2100Z 35.9N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 35.9N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 35.6N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 35.1N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 34.6N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED$$Forecaster Beven

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