View Full Version : Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 1

05-27-2016, 05:19 PM
Issued at 500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 000WTNT42 KNHC 272057TCDAT2TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the lowpressure system located about 400 n mi southeast of Charleston,South Carolina, indicated that the system has developed awell-defined closed circulation. With this afternoon's increase inconvection near the center, the system is now a tropical cycloneand advisories have been initiated. The strongest reliable SFMRsurface wind measured was 30 kt, and that is the intensity set forthis advisory.The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. A strong deep-layer ridgeto the northeast of the depression is forecast to remainoriented northwest-southeast across the Carolinas through 36 hoursor so, which should keep the depression moving in a generalwest-northwestward direction during that time. By 48 hours, however,a mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward out of thesouth-central United States is forecast to erode the ridge,resulting in a significant weakening of the steering currents and asharp decrease in forward speed as the cyclone is approaching thecoast of South Carolina. By day 3 and beyond, the cyclone isforecast to move slowly northeastward or eastward off of the coastof North Carolina as a weakening system. The models are in goodagreement on this track scenario, with only small differences inforward speed. The official track forecast is close to the consensusmodel TVCN and has incorporated the slightly slower speed of theECMWF model.The depression will be moving over somewhat cooler sea surfacetemperatures of near 25C during the next 24 hours or so beforemoving over the warmer Gulfstream by 36 hours, where SSTs are27C-28C. Over the next day or so, the cyclone will also be movinginto weaker vertical wind shear conditions. The net result isexpected to be slow strengthening to tropical storm status prior tolandfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS modelthrough 48 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS modelafter that.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 27/2100Z 28.5N 74.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 29.5N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 30.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 32.0N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 30/1800Z 33.6N 78.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 31/1800Z 34.0N 77.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW120H 01/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW$$Forecaster Stewart

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